Hurricane Melissa Intensifies While Barrels In the Direction of the Island Nation

Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to escalate to a rare category five hurricane as it turns toward the Caribbean island, bringing dangerous rapid inundation and landslides.

This weather system, which had winds of up to 195 km/h as of 6:00 AM GMT, is now shifting north-west in the Caribbean region and is projected to reach land by early next week, according to weather experts.

Warnings of blackouts and disruption to utilities have been released as this storm brings up to 30 inches of rainfall and storm surges as high as 4m above typical tides. "Find safe refuge immediately," inhabitants have been told.

The cyclone is the thirteenth cyclone in this year's Atlantic storm period, which usually concludes in November.

Most Intense Hurricane Threat

A highest-level storm is the strongest type, with winds of at least 252 km/h.

Although Melissa is projected to reduce in intensity to a fourth-level cyclone before making landfall on the island, meteorologists said there was "minimal real distinction in the overall impacts" upon landfall, and that the cyclone will be "equally strong" when it strikes the island.

Urgent Safety Steps

With tropical storm-level winds and rain predicted to begin long before it passes over Jamaica's central region - perhaps encompassing the capital, Kingston - advisories indicate that "safety measures need to be finalized quickly".

"Several days of harmful winds and heavy rainfall have begun and will cause catastrophic and life-threatening rapid water accumulation and many mudslides," urged meteorological officials.

The nation's leader Andrew Holness said: "I understand that there are numerous residents who are anxious, who are very concerned, and rightfully so: concern is justified.

"However the best way to address worry and any apprehension and anxiety is to be prepared."

Locals are being advised to fortify their houses with sandbags and plywood sheets, and to stock up on necessary supplies.

Wider Consequences

Advisories are also in effect for areas in the neighboring country such as the primary urban center, the adjacent nation and the eastern part of Cuba, where Melissa is expected to bring similar effects by the middle portion of the coming week.

Landslides already being caused by the storm have caused two deaths in Haiti, according to emergency services.

Expected Trajectory

Melissa is forecast to pass over the island nation by the middle of the week before traveling via the Greater Antilles and out into the Atlantic Ocean.

By the moment it makes contact with the Caribbean nation, it is anticipated to have reduced to a Category 3 cyclone.

Environmental Background

While it is challenging to associate individual weather events to global warming, scientists say it is resulting in meteorological events more prevalent and more severe.

Increased sea temperatures generate more moisture in the air, aiding in the formation of storms.

Ahead of the beginning of this season's Caribbean cyclone season, meteorological authorities predicted higher-than-average occurrence, referencing warmer seas and possible stronger monsoon activity around West Africa - where tropical systems frequently develop.