Followers of Newcastle United are increasingly seeing their manager's squad as an unreliable companion. On their day, they transform into the very life of the party, producing breathtaking exhibitions. But, on other occasions, once-dependable figures like Sandro Tonali and his teammates simply fail to appear.
Compounding this issue is a late-game strategy suffused by a distinct streak of panic. Before their holiday fixture to Manchester United, the facts tell a sobering story: they have squandered thirteen precious top-flight leverage from leading situations this term and are without a clean sheet in 10 consecutive games in every tournament. Securing three points at Old Trafford would constitute only their second domestic triumph on the travel this year.
On the flip side, a loss has only come once in their last six league fixtures, and although occupying a seemingly lowly 11th spot, they are a mere six marks away from the highly-prized Champions League places. Factor in an impending two-part League Cup last-four clash against Manchester City and a decent prospect of moving on to the Champions League last 16, and it is simpler to see the gaffer's measured optimism.
“We don't just have problems,” said the team's head coach. “You can see positives as well. My glass is very much half full currently. I know others might have a different view, but my belief is we are making progress.”
The question is: can this group match – or perhaps surpass – the achievements of last season's Wembley triumph and European-qualifying finish? Juggling a hectic schedule makes this difficult.
This heavy-leggedness might explain the inability to uphold a superb opening 45-minute showing versus Chelsea, ultimately letting slip a two-goal lead to draw 2-2. Similarly, it is possibly the explanation for a lackluster display in a damaging defeat to arch-rivals Sunderland, where the team seemed lethargic just a short time after a tough Champions League excursion.
Although coaching is clearly the manager's forte, the relentless grind of twice-weekly football has drastically reduced essential practice sessions. This slows the team's stylistic evolution to operating with new striker their number nine up front, instead of the now departed their former star. While hugely gifted, the German forward lacks the same electric breakaway pace or ferocious pressing.
In fact, the side's once-formidable pressing game has at times failed. Fitness issues to crucial component Joelinton have been a factor, while big-money signings Anthony Elanga and the English midfielder have struggled settling after their combined £90m+ transfers.
If a move to a 3-5-2 could theoretically assist the cause, a full-blown backline injury crisis makes that problematic. Important full-backs will be absent for the next key matches, straining the squad's resources.
When playing at their high-tempo best, they look almost unplayable. The problem is maintaining that level for the entire match. The often-seen alternative approach of sitting back into a passive counter-attacking shape has at times been self-destructive.
“The Chelsea game became anarchic at two-all,” conceded the manager. “However we were going for the victory. Our mentality is to always go out to win.”
What appears required is a balanced approach – one featuring superior ball retention, a engine room capable of slowing the pace, and a realistic readiness to sometimes settle for a point. Yet, a desire to compete on all fronts is pushing thin player numbers to their limit.
It may sound unthinkable to some, but a more selective strategy in the domestic cups in the initial stages could have eased the current schedule congestion. With vital Champions League and Premier League games on the agenda, the imperative to carefully prioritize is becoming increasingly apparent.
Eddie Howe acknowledged the size of the task remaining. “When you're involved a club of this size, the expectations are immense. Each game is pivotal. We have work to do in the Premier League. We are in the Carabao Cup semi-finals, we aim to progress in the Europe and do well in the FA Cup.
“The direction is in the correct path, but we have lots of improvement to do to become the regularly successful side we want to be. Our capacity to put winning runs has deserted us this season.
“The challenge is to reach those levels we know we're capable of. My feeling is that the assurance to do that is growing. But now we have to show it. It ain't all bad currently, but the next few weeks will shape much.”
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